SHOCK analysis has predicted Labour will FAIL to win a majority at the next election.
Taking the results so far announced in the English local elections on Friday, Sky News elections analyst predicted Keir Starmer’s party will become the largest party after the General Election.
But in a major twist, Professor Michael Thrasher said they would fall short of an overall majority – meaning they would need to cut a deal with a smaller party to form a government.
He said the party would win 294 seats – which is 32 seats short of the 326 boundary needed to form a majority.
With more than half of wards declared, Professor Thrasher said Labour’s vote has risen from 33% in 2019 to 35% on the current estimate.
He said the Tories were on just 26% of the vote, a 19-point drop compared with the 2019 General Election and one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections.
READ MORE: John Curtice gives verdict on Labour's election results
Meanwhile, the LibDems are 16% up five points on 2019, though Sky News said the party often out-performed in local elections.
But a major assumption in the analysis is that votes for nationalist parties like the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales will be unchanged.
This means Labour will need to win big in Scotland to gain even a slim majority. The party currently holds two seats in Scotland but is projected to win seats across the Central Belt.
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