WINCHESTER is likely to no longer be classed as coronavirus ‘hotspot’ in February, according to a model by university scientists.

A map by Imperial College London says it is 63 per cent likely that the district will have at least 100 cases per 100,000 people by the week ending February 6.

Currently, the district is firmly classed as a hotspot with the data saying that it is 99 per cent likely that Winchester will record at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over seven days.

The map categorises areas as ‘hotspots’ if they have between a 75 per cent and 100 per cent chance of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300 or 500 cases per week.

The probability of the Winchester district recording more than 100 cases by January 30 is 86 per cent.

The university’s Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis classes areas with such a rate as a Covid-19 ‘hotspot’.

The Imperial College model is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

In Southampton, the city has a 55 per cent chance of documenting more than 200 cases per week, meaning it would cease to be a Covid 'hotspot'.

At the moment, the local authority has a 99 per cent possibility of recording more than 200 cases over seven days.

Meanwhile, in Test Valley the map predicts there is a 74 per cent chance of the area seeing more than 100 cases by February 6, and Basingstoke will almost certainly remain a Covid hotspot with a 99 per cent probability.


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