THE chances of Winchester becoming a coronavirus hotspot have been increasing - and look set to continue to increase, an online tool suggests.
According to an interactive Covid-19 calculator designed by Imperial College London, Winchester has gone from having zero per cent chances of becoming a hotspot at the end of September to 84 per cent by the end of this week.
By the end of October, the likelihood will increase further to 92 per cent.
A hotspot is defined as an area where weekly reported cases rise above 50 per 100,000.
The prediction reflects the ongoing rise in coronavirus cases reported in Winchester and elsewhere in the UK.
According to the tool, the county's probabilities of becoming a hotspot are as follows:
October 4 - October 10: 64 per cent
October 11 - October 17: 84 per cent
October 18 - October 24: 92 per cent
The online calculator uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling.
The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England, Scotland and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing and the probability of R(t) being greater than 1.
The predictions assume no change in current interventions, such as lockdowns and school closures, in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
Researchers also note that an increase in cases in a local authority can be due to an increase in testing, which the model does not currently account for.
It also assumes all individuals within each local authority are equally likely to be infected, so demographic factors such as the age structure of the population are not considered.
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