4:06am Thursday 19th November 2009
© Press Association 2010
EU leaders are braced for a showdown over who leads Europe, after the failure of behind-the-scenes talks to select a "President" and "High Representative for Foreign Affairs".
The two new key posts are created by the Lisbon Treaty, but there was no clear consensus on who should be appointed to either job just hours ahead of the Thursday night summit in Brussels to announce the names.
Tony Blair still figures on an unofficial ballot paper for "President of the European Council," with Gordon Brown determined to press Mr Blair's case and muster more support at the summit.
But the front-runner is the Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, virtually unknown before the presidential race began.
Paradoxically, his chances may have faded since France and Germany joined forces to throw their weight behind him, because smaller EU member states fear a stitch-up in which a "western" candidate is imposed upon them.
Bigger countries, too, including the UK, Italy, Spain and Poland, are not likely to approve Mr Van Rompuy without a fight, and it may fall to the Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt to battle for a unanimous accord - or at least a large majority of the 27 leaders behind one name.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed on Wednesday that "Germany and France will reach an agreement together on this issue and not oppose each other". Then the German ambassador to Belgium let slip that Mr Van Rompuy was their chosen one. That may trigger a switch of support in some capitals to other prime ministers such as Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende or former Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga.
But British officials insist that there is still much more support for Tony Blair's apparently faded chances than people think.
"If you are looking for a presidential figure who can open doors around the world, who can represent the EU and has instant international recognition, there is no-one else" said one. "The fact is that Mr Blair is the A-team. The others may be very good, but they are the B-team."
The problem for the British case is that many EU leaders do not believe that "President of the European Council" needs to strut the world stage or be a high-profile figure to do the required job. The Lisbon Treaty simply says the two-and-half year job is to chair EU summits and senior ministerial meetings and to "drive forward" the work of the member state governments at EU level.
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