Eastleigh need 15 points from their remaining eight games if they are to secure a Vanarama Conference play-off spot.
Over the past eight seasons, an average of 79 points has been enough to secure fifth and the last promotion berth.
If the Spitfires are to sneak in there they haven’t got much room for error.
The minimum they have to do is win four and draw three to take their tally from 64 to the 79 point target.
It is a difficult prospect, considering four of their remaining matches are against the current top ten.
History doesn’t exactly side with them, either.
In those eight seasons, just three of the teams that were sat in sixth place – where Eastleigh are placed – at this point in the campaign ended up finishing in the play-offs.
In fact, only Exeter City in 2007/08 have won promotion via the play-off system after sitting sixth on March 21.
Not since the inaugural Conference South campaign in 2005/06 has the champions (Grays) of the division gone onto finish in the play-off spots.
But Spitfires could easily buck that trend.
If results go their way today, the Spitfires, who play at Grimsby this afternoon, could move into fifth and above Forest Green Rovers.
On another plus, Eastleigh have already matched or surpassed six of the nine Conference South title holders’ points’ totals in their first season in the Conference top-flight.
Richard Hill’s side are just 12 points from catching Grays’ 76 points in 05/06, eight points from Histon’s 72 points in 06/07 and five away from Newport County’s 69 points in 10/11.
Fifth place finishes:
2013/14: Halifax Town 77
2012/13 Wrexham 80
2011/12 Luton 81
2010/11 Fleetwood 78
2009/10 York City 78
2008/09 Stevenage 81
2007/08 Burton 81
2006/07 Exeter 78
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