Winchester house prices are likely to rise in the next five years, bucking the national trend.

The forecast was made when around 60 property experts met at Winchester College on Tuesday (February 14).

The event, organised by Savills, also revealed that cash buyers rather than people with mortgages were driving the market.

Savills’ director of residential research Lucian Cook said demand was lower, but so was the supply of properties.

He added that they were facing a “partially functioning market” with fewer sales than before the credit crunch.

Annual sales in Winchester had fallen by just under one third since the peak in 2007.

However, that compared with a drop of around half in Southampton and Portsmouth, reflecting the national figures.

In the first 14 months of the credit crunch, he said property prices fell by up to 20 per cent.

They recovered partially in 2009 and had stayed roughly the same ever since, the meeting heard.

With the economy struggling to recover, Mr Cook said they estimated national prices would rise six per cent in the next five years.

Once inflation is taken into account, it would mean that values would actually fall in real terms.

However, the South East was likely to see a rise of nearly 16 per cent, and possibly 18 or 19 per cent in Winchester, said Mr Cook.

If the estimates are correct, it would mean housing in England’s historic capital would still grow in value, even with a sluggish economy.

It also emerged that 47 per cent of all money spent on housing in England and Wales was in London and the South East.

That was down to a larger supply of cash buyers in places like Hampshire than in northern England, added Mr Cook.

“If you’re looking for a 90 per cent mortgage for a property these days, you will find that incredibly hard,” he said.

With fewer buyers, but also a scarcity of homes, he added that the market was delicately balanced.

He likened it to the marooned coach at the end of The Italian Job, with the gold at one end and the gang at the other, trying to keep the vehicle balanced.

Another factor keeping prices high in Winchester was demand from London buyers seeking more space.

While a four-bedroom terraced home in Fulham costs £1m, the same would buy a six-bedroom detached house in St Cross, said Mr Cook.